Global Conflict Risk Index - European Commission (2024)

The GCRI covers 22 variables in 6 dimensions (social, economic, security, political, geographical/environmental, demographic) reflecting structural conditions correlated to the occurrence of violent conflict. The GCRI uses historical data since 1991 to train the model, which is then used to forecast conflict risk in the next 1-4 years. Conflict risk scores relate to the following types of conflict: (1) Any conflict, (2) State-based conflict, (3) Non-state conflict and (4) One-sided violence.

Global Conflict Risk Index - European Commission (1)

Several model design decisions, including definition of the dependent variable, predictor variable selection, data imputation, and probability threshold definition, have been setin light ofthe model’s direct application in the EU policy support on conflict prevention. While the GCRI remains firmly rooted by its conception and development in the European conflict prevention policy agenda, it is validated as a scientifically robust and rigorous method for a baseline quantitative evaluation of armed conflict risk.

Global Conflict Risk Index - European Commission (2024)

FAQs

What is the Global conflict risk Index? ›

The Global Conflict Risk Index (GCRI) expresses the statistical risk of violent conflict in a given country in the coming 1-4 years and is exclusively based on quantitative indicators from open sources.

What is the conflict index? ›

The ACLED Conflict Index assesses every country and territory in the world according to four indicators – deadliness, danger to civilians, geographic diffusion, and armed group fragmentation – based on analysis of political violence event data collected for the past year.

What are the main causes of global conflict? ›

Wars, or armed conflicts between countries and other groups of people, break out for various reasons. These reasons can include economic gain, territorial expansion, religious or cultural reasons, political balances of power, and more.

What is the military risk index? ›

The Military Conflict Risk Index measures, on a continuous, real-time basis, the perceptions of military conflict intensification from citizens in five major geopolitical conflicts: Russia-Ukraine, China-Taiwan, India-Pakistan, Iran-Israel, and South Korea-North Korea.

What does the World Risk Index measure? ›

The World Risk Index is a tool used to assess and estimate the disaster risk of a country. It takes into consideration both external and internal factors, i.e. threats by natural hazards such as cyclones, floods, droughts and sea level rise and societal conditions.

What are the four components of the World Risk Index? ›

Exposure to earthquakes, storms, floods, drought, and sea-level rise • Susceptibility depending on infrastructure, food supply, and economic framework conditions • Coping capacities depending on governance, health care, social and material security • Adaptive capacities related to upcoming natural events, climate ...

What is the most violent country index? ›

It is joined at the top of the index by New Zealand, Ireland, Denmark and Austria. For the fifth consecutive year, Afghanistan is the least peaceful country, followed by Yemen, Syria, Russia and South Sudan.

What percentage of the world is in conflict? ›

Estimated 14 per cent of world population exposed to conflict, data shows. An estimated 14 per cent of people in the world were within five kilometres of violent conflict in 2023, according to new data.

What is considered a global conflict? ›

Global conflict is a term that encompasses a broad range of disputes on a worldwide scale. This could include world wars, civil wars, tense political standoffs, arms races, and more.

Which country has fought the most wars in history? ›

United States. Beginning with the American Revolutionary War, the US has been involved in 107 wars since it gained its independence.

What is the US danger index? ›

The National Risk Index (NRI) is an easy-to-use, interactive tool that shows which communities are most at risk to natural hazards. It includes data about the expected annual losses to individual natural hazards, social vulnerability and community resilience, available at county and Census tract levels.

What is the Harvard Risk Index? ›

Conclusion: The Harvard Cancer Risk Index offers a simple estimation of personal risk of cancer. It may help inform users of the major risk factors for cancer and identify changes in lifestyle that will reduce their risk. It offers the potential for tailored health-promotion messages.

What is the risk rate index? ›

Risk Index : The risk index is the overall result of a risk assessment. All indicators and indexes can be used in the calculation for the risk index. It is a composite of the likelihood and impact index. Likelihood : The likelihood index shows the probability of a risk event occuring.

What is the global climate risk index? ›

The Global Climate Risk Index identifies the extent to which countries have been affected by extreme weather events. These can be meteorological events such as tropical storms or tornados, hydrological events such as storm surges or flash floods, or climatological events such as wildfires or drou...

What is the rank of the world risk Index? ›

The countries with the highest disaster risk worldwide are the Philippines (WRI 46.86), Indonesia (WRI 43.50), and India (WRI 41.52). The composition of the ten countries with the highest risk remains virtually unchanged compared to the previous year.

What is the CRI country risk index? ›

The CRI quantifies the risk of a shock, such as an economic crisis or a sudden change in the political environment that would affect those conducting business within a country, territory, or special administrative region.

What is the National risk Index USA? ›

The National Risk Index (NRI) is an easy-to-use, interactive tool that shows which communities are most at risk to natural hazards. It includes data about the expected annual losses to individual natural hazards, social vulnerability and community resilience, available at county and Census tract levels.

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